Retail Holiday Newsletter

2024 Holiday Shopping: Inside the Latest Retail Sales

US retail sales growth slowed in August and September, indicating a cautious holiday season.

Snap Chart

2024 Holiday Shopping: Inside the Latest Retail Sales
en

Retail’s biggest season is almost here, but retailers may not be feeling the cheer yet. In September, total nominal US retail sales for Bain-defined categories grew just 2.3% year over year, continuing the downward trend that began in July and falling short of last September’s 2.8% growth. Both in-store and nonstore sales lost momentum. The slowdown supports our forecast of a more sluggish holiday season.

Bain’s Consumer Health Index shows a more cautious consumer mindset this year, with a reduced outlook and lower intent to spend compared to last year. The largest decrease in intent to spend is among upper-income households, which make up more than half of US spending. Rising credit card delinquencies, low savings, and elevated nondiscretionary costs are squeezing many Americans. Nearly half now expect groceries to be their top spending category this season. And many say their top priority is enjoying time with loved ones, as they focus on essentials and plan to reduce spending.

Still, we expect November and December to remain the biggest sales months of the year. Most consumers say they will continue to wait until at least November to start their holiday shopping.

Related

Five Shopper-Led Strategies for the Holiday Season

Bain research shows that global consumers plan to spend less, shop more online, and wait until November to check off their gift list.

Tags

Ready to talk?

We work with ambitious leaders who want to define the future, not hide from it. Together, we achieve extraordinary outcomes.