Holiday season is November and December only. Sales forecasts are year-over-year nominal growth. Bain defines US retail sales as unadjusted in-store and nonstore (e-commerce and mail order) sales, excluding sales by auto and auto parts dealers, gas stations, and restaurants.
Historical sales and forecast for Bain-defined retail sales are not seasonally adjusted.
Consumer Health Index is seasonally adjusted, and 100 is equivalent to the August 2017 baseline.