Holiday season is November and December only. Bain defines US retail sales as unadjusted in-store and nonstore (e-commerce and mail order) sales, excluding sales by auto and auto parts dealers, gas stations, and restaurants.
Historical sales and forecast for Bain-defined retail sales are not seasonally adjusted.
Consumer Health Index is seasonally adjusted, and 100 is equivalent to the August 2017 baseline.
The authors would like to acknowledge Ashish Prasad, Sakshi Goyal, Shivali Srivastava, Saavy Tyagi, and Saurabh Arora for their contributions to this newsletter.