2011-2012 Retail Holiday Newsletter #5

Retail sales seem to be following the traditional holiday pattern: slowing as customers wait for Black Friday, then a rush through the Thanksgiving weekend and Cyber Monday, followed by a lull before the final sprint to Christmas. As we write this, overall retail sales seem to be meeting or exceeding our 3% growth expectations. GAFS sales were up 3.9% in November, and early-December reports indicate only minor deceleration in same-store sales growth. E-commerce continues to lead the way, with sales up 15% through November and early December. Still, with five of the heaviest shopping days of the season to come, mixed economic signals and aggressive competition mean retailers will be squeezing every drop out of every marketing dollar until the holiday season wraps up.