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Custom Air Travel Forecasts
Improve your financial, capacity, and commercial planning with granular air traffic demand projections.
Launched in May 2020, our air traffic forecast was originally designed as a response to pandemic uncertainties. It has since evolved to cover other key factors: macroeconomic growth, levels of disposable income, and carbon mitigation costs. Now extended to the end of the decade, the forecast is updated regularly using the latest information.
Here is the outlook as of the end of the fourth quarter of 2024:
- Annual air travel demand remains on track to surpass the 2019 total this year, as measured by revenue passenger kilometers (RPK)—the number of paying passengers multiplied by the total distance traveled. This year’s third-quarter demand was in line with expectations, reaching 102% of 2019 value (see Figure 1 above). By 2030, we anticipate global RPK will reach 11.4 trillion in our base scenario, which would be 136% of 2019 volume. Meanwhile, several factors have contributed to changes in the forecasts for specific regions and countries (see Figures 2 and 3).
- A slightly improved macroeconomic forecast raised the 2030 demand outlook for North American intraregional travel by 1 percentage point vs. the previous quarter. This is equivalent to a nearly $1 billion revenue increase at current yields.
- The travel demand outlook between Europe and Asia increased by approximately 2.5 percentage points, translating to a $1 billion revenue increase. Much of this growth can be attributed to the UK, France, and India.
- We continue to anticipate significant intraregional demand growth in Asia—a 58% increase from 2019 to 2030.
- European countries will continue to be the top destinations for international short-haul travel. Spain is projected to retain the top spot, handling 60 million inbound short-haul visitors annually by 2030. The UK and Italy are expected to hold the No. 2 and 3 positions, respectively.
- Meanwhile, the top three destinations for long-haul inbound travel are expected to be the US, UK, and Thailand. The US is expected to reach 37 million annual inbound long-haul visitors by 2030, surpassing the combined total of the UK (14 million) and Thailand (12 million).
Projected market and financial information, analyses, and conclusions are based (unless sourced otherwise) on external information and Bain & Company’s judgment. They are intended as a guide only and should not be construed as definitive forecasts or guarantees of future performance or results. No responsibility or liability whatsoever is accepted by any person, including Bain & Company, Inc., or its affiliates and their respective officers, employees, or agents, for any errors or omissions.
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