Retail Holiday Newsletter
Santa’s sleigh has kicked into high gear for the start of the season. US sales are gaining momentum, with 5.4% year-over-year growth in Bain-defined retail sales in October and a nearly one-point upward revision to 3.1% in September. Online growth shone at 9.4%, in line with our expectations heading into the holidays, while in-store sales’ 4.0% growth exceeded our expectations relative to our forecast.
Bain’s Consumer Health Index also points to resilience, especially among upper-income households. The outlook for upper-income earners—who make up 54% of consumer spending—is improving, likely due to stock market gains and interest rate cuts. However, these consumers remain cautious, their spending intent dipping slightly compared with last year.
Lower-income consumers' spending intent has jumped in the past month, but their fiscal outlook remains flat. Middle-income earners aren't building momentum. These cohorts continue to feel the pinch of lower savings, slower disposable income growth, and higher prices due to steady inflation. Nearly a third of consumers say they don’t have enough money for nonessentials this season.
With the season’s biggest days ahead, retailers are launching early Black Friday promotions to entice consumers. They are also leaning into AI for personalizing gift recommendations, messages, and offers, to inspire shoppers and make the season bright.
Five Shopper-Led Strategies for the Holiday Season
Bain research shows that global consumers plan to spend less, shop more online, and wait until November to check off their gift list.