Bain Retail Holiday Newsletter #6
Bain & Company 1/17/2009
by Darrell Rigby and Kris Miller
Preliminary sales results for the 2008 holiday season are in, and the news is even worse than expected. Retail sales for November and December dropped 4.4% versus 2007, well below forecasts. With the 2008 holiday season over, we turn our attention to the new year. We close our final newsletter of the season with a brief discussion of what to expect in 2009. We also offer suggestions on some of the priorities retailers should consider as they head into what is sure to be a difficult year... or more.
Bain Retail Holiday Newsletter #5
Bain & Company 12/12/2008
by Darrell Rigby and Kris Miller
Retail sales fell for a record third straight month in November. Over the last 40 years, holiday sales growth has never been negative, but it could take a holiday miracle to avoid that this year. Although consumer sentiment has increased slightly as gas prices have fallen and stock market volatility has lessened, consumers continue to pull back on spending. The next year or two are likely to pose substantial ongoing challenges for retailers, and some firms won't rise to the occasion. But those that take the appropriate actions may survive and find themselves well positioned to seize unique opportunities, emerging from these difficult times stronger than ever.
Bain Retail Holiday Newsletter #4
Bain & Company 12/5/2008
by Darrell Rigby and Kris Miller
It's official: On Monday the National Bureau of Economic Research announced that the US economy has been in a recession since December 2007. But in what has been a lackluster year and holiday season for retailers so far, the Thanksgiving weekend provided better-than-expected results. It is unlikely, however, that one positive weekend will be enough to overcome what could turn into the worst holiday season on record. November same-store sales growth was the lowest in over 35 years. This followed the recent release of largely disappointing third-quarter results.
Bain Retail Holiday Newsletter #3
Bain & Company 11/14/2008
by Darrell Rigby and Kris Miller
Retail sales fell in October for the second straight month. Nearly every sector posted declines as rising unemployment and a sharp slowdown in personal-income growth drove consumers to make deep cuts in spending. Consumer sentiment remains at an all-time low, and recent research suggests that consumers are more worried than excited about the holidays. Those who are shopping are determined to find the best deals, and retailers are responding by launching early and creative promotions to help drive and convert traffic. But slowing sales and heavy promotional activity may expose retailers to a liquidity crisis and an increased risk of bankruptcy.
Bain Retail Holiday Newsletter #2
Bain & Company 11/6/2008
by Darrell Rigby and Kris Miller
Retail sales headwinds are still raging. Consumer confidence plummeted to an all-time low in October as consumers continued to grapple with stock market volatility, rising unemployment and limited access to credit. And as consumers pull back, retailers are being hit hard, most reporting negative same-store sales growth in October. But retailers aren't standing still. Many are cutting costs to protect profitability, and some are evaluating bold strokes to either grasp strategic opportunities or avoid joining the growing roster of bankruptcies.
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